Wednesday, August 5, 2009

some more thoughts

I'm gonna evaluate each of Dshaw's bets from last night to give a different perspective on them. I don't know who dshaw is but don't take it personally. Just giving you my take. fwiw, the only results in terms of w/l that i know out of these are the Rangers game and the Dodgers game. So even if you won the bet doesn't mean its a good bet in the long run. Here goes:

Orioles(Baltimore) Matusz
Tigers(Detroit) Washburn
-1.5 2 units
I don't know what the line is here. But RL is a red flag, especially with a mediocre team.

Brewers(Milwaukee) Gallardo
Dodgers(LA) Kuroda
-1.5 (+170) 2 units
Laying RL again against a really good pitcher in Gallardo. Is there really value in this?

Cardinals(StLouis) Pineiro
Mets(NY) Santana
-108 1 unit
I like this. Getting Santana at near even money (-110) is a decent proposition.

Rangers(Texas) Holland -120 1 unit
Laying money on a rookie as a fave on the road who just came off the best start of his career. A rookie who up to this point has displayed control problems against a team that at least will work a count. Books are salivating. If Holland hadn't just pitched a 1 hitter in 8 2/3 this line probably would have been Texas EVEN or -110. Public perception probably pumped this line up.

Marlins(Florida) Johnson -167 1 unit
Nationals(Washington) Martin
Steep price on the Marlins on the road as a huge fave. Whats the point?

You guys need to GTFO with these RLs or start limiting them.