Wednesday, August 5, 2009

whats up

I haven't bet on sports in a long time because it took too much of my time. I don't have any money online anymore but at one time I had money across TheGreek, 5Dimes, and Bookmaker as my main books. I've also used Matchbook, VIP, Bodog, Sportsbook, and BetUS. At the height I had nearly 10G's spread across my books and my unit size was either 100 or 200 depending on the sport. Largest bet I ever placed was a shade over a grand. Too much disposable income and time. It wasn't healthy cuz I got too engrossed in it. I've bet on everything, NFL, NBA, MLB, NHL, cfb, cbb, horses, and PGA. Long term I lost money but a lot of it was stupidity and money management early on. Towards the end boredom set in as well as being immune to throwing down large chunks of change so I exercised poor money management and lost more. When I was going good I was definitely able to cash. At some point I'll probably get back in but for small entertainment value. So not to scare anyone about betting on sports but just have fun with it and don't be too focused on making tons of money. Ask me questions if you have them. Heres just a few random thoughts off the top of my head...

-Tim, sportsbook.com sucks. Terrible lines and I wouldn't be surprised if you have trouble getting money out.
-My favorites were 5dimes and bookmaker. Early cfb lines with bookmaker and I liked 5dimes reduced juice lines.
-Hardest sport to bet on is NFL. Majority of people lose money betting NFL, its just a fact. Everyone thinks they have a lock every week but parity is huge and even a TD favorite is a big spread in the NFL. So many backdoor losses.
-Best chances to win money: early season MLB, early season CFB, first and last month of NBA, small conference cfb, early season cbb.
-Avoid road favorites. Look into home dogs for value.
-Betting RLs in MLB is for newbs. If you want to make money in MLB the best way is to bet on dogs against overvalued teams. Betting on huge faves is a major losing proposition long term.
-Your unit size should be 2-5% of your entire bankroll. Otherwise your money management will go to shit and you'll be tapped out if you hit a bad streak and won't be able to handle the swings. And by bankroll, I mean the maximum amount of money you are willing to lose if it all goes to hell.

This ones important and what separates the novices from the experts, the people who will eventually lose money and the people who will make money long term. Its a hard concept to understand and even more difficult to implement because inevitably anyone who is betting for fun will want to bet on a certain game because he feels like it. However, the majority of games out there have no value in betting on them, ESPECIALLY the big games but thats what people will want to bet on for action. Lines for big games are set so tight by the books that in the long run they're all toss-ups. Here goes:
-When people bet because so and so is hurt or cuz "this pitcher sucks" don't you think the books have already factored that into their lines? The whole idea is to find value. Books set lines based on where they think they will get the most even distribution of bets. They don't care who people bet on because they'll collect on juice if they can get 50/50 on either side. Find the lines where books have overvalued a team because they know thats where they'll get public sentiment on their side. For example, the Yankees are always overvalued so they are always at least 10 cents higher on the line than they should be because people love betting on the Yankees. If they set the yanks at -150 maybe they would get 60/40 in terms of distribution. Now if they set the Yanks at -160 then it'll bring it closer to 50/50. Lucky you, you just got 10 cents more value on their opponent. In the end, this is how you make money betting on sports. For example, if everyone bets on a favorite whos favored by 7, the books will keep pushing that line up until they get a better distribution. They'll be favored by 8, and if bets keep coming in on the 8 then it'll soon be 8.5 etc. At some point, the value is on the underdog if the line keeps going up. Another good example is if the number of bets are 75/25 on one side but the line hasn't moved. That means people are laying heavy money on the 25% side to keep the money balanced and the line stable.

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