Friday, August 28, 2009

More Preseason!

Got the pats -3 for the first half today. hopefully the weather isn't too bad and brady plays like brady.

Sunday, August 23, 2009

LSU v Wash St.

line right now is LSU -16.5. I haven't done much research, but from what i've been reading and hearing it kind of sounds like LSU is a pretty good choice for a dark horse this year. With their athleticism, and how bad of a team Wazzou is, I feel like LSU will cover that and more.

What do you guys think? Has Wash St improved a lot from last year, or are they still just as bad.

Thursday, August 13, 2009

1st CFB!

penn state -27
ball state -18. buying this back and going on UNT+18
minny -7
notre dame -13.5
stanford -17
texas -42

NFL Preseason!

Anyone got any takes on tonight's games?

Friday, August 7, 2009

2 game rl chase system

hey albert i've been playin this system for a couple of weeks now and i just wanted to get your take on it.

i realize there are tons of chase systems, but this guy doesnt really give all the details on how he filters the plays. he seems to leave out some surprising plays that most people would have picked, but would have lost money for us (ie: the det series against balt that just finished). he has been very successful in the past in all sports, and is getting paid offers for his picks. seeing as how you are really against playin rl's i just wanted to see what you thought abt this. YTD record is 33-5 for all series played.

Wednesday, August 5, 2009

some more thoughts

I'm gonna evaluate each of Dshaw's bets from last night to give a different perspective on them. I don't know who dshaw is but don't take it personally. Just giving you my take. fwiw, the only results in terms of w/l that i know out of these are the Rangers game and the Dodgers game. So even if you won the bet doesn't mean its a good bet in the long run. Here goes:

Orioles(Baltimore) Matusz
Tigers(Detroit) Washburn
-1.5 2 units
I don't know what the line is here. But RL is a red flag, especially with a mediocre team.

Brewers(Milwaukee) Gallardo
Dodgers(LA) Kuroda
-1.5 (+170) 2 units
Laying RL again against a really good pitcher in Gallardo. Is there really value in this?

Cardinals(StLouis) Pineiro
Mets(NY) Santana
-108 1 unit
I like this. Getting Santana at near even money (-110) is a decent proposition.

Rangers(Texas) Holland -120 1 unit
Laying money on a rookie as a fave on the road who just came off the best start of his career. A rookie who up to this point has displayed control problems against a team that at least will work a count. Books are salivating. If Holland hadn't just pitched a 1 hitter in 8 2/3 this line probably would have been Texas EVEN or -110. Public perception probably pumped this line up.

Marlins(Florida) Johnson -167 1 unit
Nationals(Washington) Martin
Steep price on the Marlins on the road as a huge fave. Whats the point?

You guys need to GTFO with these RLs or start limiting them.

whats up

I haven't bet on sports in a long time because it took too much of my time. I don't have any money online anymore but at one time I had money across TheGreek, 5Dimes, and Bookmaker as my main books. I've also used Matchbook, VIP, Bodog, Sportsbook, and BetUS. At the height I had nearly 10G's spread across my books and my unit size was either 100 or 200 depending on the sport. Largest bet I ever placed was a shade over a grand. Too much disposable income and time. It wasn't healthy cuz I got too engrossed in it. I've bet on everything, NFL, NBA, MLB, NHL, cfb, cbb, horses, and PGA. Long term I lost money but a lot of it was stupidity and money management early on. Towards the end boredom set in as well as being immune to throwing down large chunks of change so I exercised poor money management and lost more. When I was going good I was definitely able to cash. At some point I'll probably get back in but for small entertainment value. So not to scare anyone about betting on sports but just have fun with it and don't be too focused on making tons of money. Ask me questions if you have them. Heres just a few random thoughts off the top of my head...

-Tim, sucks. Terrible lines and I wouldn't be surprised if you have trouble getting money out.
-My favorites were 5dimes and bookmaker. Early cfb lines with bookmaker and I liked 5dimes reduced juice lines.
-Hardest sport to bet on is NFL. Majority of people lose money betting NFL, its just a fact. Everyone thinks they have a lock every week but parity is huge and even a TD favorite is a big spread in the NFL. So many backdoor losses.
-Best chances to win money: early season MLB, early season CFB, first and last month of NBA, small conference cfb, early season cbb.
-Avoid road favorites. Look into home dogs for value.
-Betting RLs in MLB is for newbs. If you want to make money in MLB the best way is to bet on dogs against overvalued teams. Betting on huge faves is a major losing proposition long term.
-Your unit size should be 2-5% of your entire bankroll. Otherwise your money management will go to shit and you'll be tapped out if you hit a bad streak and won't be able to handle the swings. And by bankroll, I mean the maximum amount of money you are willing to lose if it all goes to hell.

This ones important and what separates the novices from the experts, the people who will eventually lose money and the people who will make money long term. Its a hard concept to understand and even more difficult to implement because inevitably anyone who is betting for fun will want to bet on a certain game because he feels like it. However, the majority of games out there have no value in betting on them, ESPECIALLY the big games but thats what people will want to bet on for action. Lines for big games are set so tight by the books that in the long run they're all toss-ups. Here goes:
-When people bet because so and so is hurt or cuz "this pitcher sucks" don't you think the books have already factored that into their lines? The whole idea is to find value. Books set lines based on where they think they will get the most even distribution of bets. They don't care who people bet on because they'll collect on juice if they can get 50/50 on either side. Find the lines where books have overvalued a team because they know thats where they'll get public sentiment on their side. For example, the Yankees are always overvalued so they are always at least 10 cents higher on the line than they should be because people love betting on the Yankees. If they set the yanks at -150 maybe they would get 60/40 in terms of distribution. Now if they set the Yanks at -160 then it'll bring it closer to 50/50. Lucky you, you just got 10 cents more value on their opponent. In the end, this is how you make money betting on sports. For example, if everyone bets on a favorite whos favored by 7, the books will keep pushing that line up until they get a better distribution. They'll be favored by 8, and if bets keep coming in on the 8 then it'll soon be 8.5 etc. At some point, the value is on the underdog if the line keeps going up. Another good example is if the number of bets are 75/25 on one side but the line hasn't moved. That means people are laying heavy money on the 25% side to keep the money balanced and the line stable.

cold streak ends today!

alrite nigs. made some goooood money on the dodgers rl last night. let's hope this cold streak is over!

layin a unit on over 8.5 for mets/cards!

Tuesday, August 4, 2009


Terrible night...back to the drawing board...

Goal: Minimum of $500 by season's end

So now that we started this blog that can be used to keep track of our picks, I might as well use it and keep track of my bets. I started my bankroll at $50 and am up to $330 today. I guess big picture wise this is a good thing but I was up to $560 a week and a half ago...

Anyway, if you know anything about me you know that I am a go big or go home type of person. So here we go: for me 1 unit will be $30 (like is said, go big or go home).

Todays Bets:

Orioles(Baltimore) Matusz
Tigers(Detroit) Washburn
-1.5 2 units

Brewers(Milwaukee) Gallardo
Dodgers(LA) Kuroda
-1.5 (+170) 2 units

Cardinals(StLouis) Pineiro
Mets(NY) Santana
-108 1 unit

Rangers(Texas) Holland -120 1 unit

Marlins(Florida) Johnson -167 1 unit
Nationals(Washington) Martin

This will either make me or break me...BIG DAY!

Record: 0-0 0 units

Monday, August 3, 2009

damn tigers...

those fuckin tigers will be the end of me. on the chase tomorrow w/ washburn up who's been HOT. got matsuze up for the o's who is some rookie pitcher. time to double down and make some moneyyy back!

BOL to all of ya'll who are on the dodgers tonight too!


so most of you already have betting accounts, but for those who don't, here is how to set one up. find a website, create an account, deposit money, and then start makin monies.

i use, but there are otherwebsites like or you can find a local bookie which dshaw does.

baseball picks of the day:
tigers -1.5 rl (-125)
dodgers -1.5 rl (-115)

BOL nigs!