Friday, August 7, 2009

2 game rl chase system

hey albert i've been playin this system for a couple of weeks now and i just wanted to get your take on it.

i realize there are tons of chase systems, but this guy doesnt really give all the details on how he filters the plays. he seems to leave out some surprising plays that most people would have picked, but would have lost money for us (ie: the det series against balt that just finished). he has been very successful in the past in all sports, and is getting paid offers for his picks. seeing as how you are really against playin rl's i just wanted to see what you thought abt this. YTD record is 33-5 for all series played.


  1. I've got mixed opinions on chase systems. I've definitely done them before. On the one hand I liked it cuz it simplified things. Less research and its just automatic selection of games. On the other hand, its a chase and thats dangerous. I got burned really bad on an NHL chase system that had documented success for several years running. However since it was a chase you can get really deep into a hole and basically my bankroll for the chase ran out. The chase turned around but I was out of bankroll money when it did.

    Having said that this is only a 2 game chase so you wouldn't run into the situation that I did. However, what I don't get is the selection of games. The whole idea of a system is selection by criteria. It seems theres some discretionary selection of picks including the decision to use ML's at certain times.

    I understand the reason for RL in this system... as he details its because most times you're basically playing a really good team against a really bad team. The reason I'm anti RL as single game bets is because you're not getting your moneys worth mathematically. The amount the line is reduced is not equal to the value of that extra run if that makes sense.

    I guess I'm not giving you a definitive answer but I would say that if you're going to play a system you probably shouldn't have many side wagers because it could just negate any money you make in the system. I'm not against systems but this isn't a true system because like I said, theres discretion involved. Hes had success though. And as they guy said, don't start making 4 unit bets on the system just cuz its had success.

    I'll post up an NBA system thats been pretty successful. The system only produces less than 10 plays a season though.

    As a side note, you guys understand that when people say a unit, if its a fave, its to win 1 unit, if its a dog, its bet 1 unit? i.e.

    -110 1 unit means 1.1 to win 1
    +110 1 unit means 1 to win 1.1

  2. good points man. yeah i'm not really sure what sorts of criteria he puts into his picks, but he also has other threads that are single play computer picks. i'm assuming he just plugs his stats into a program and filters everything through that.

    as far as odds go, none of the plays ever have worse odds than -115. in the off chance that a dog is picked as a chase play, the +1.5 rl odds might be worse than -115 so that could be a factor in choosing ML for dogs rather than rl.

    note: he currently does not include pitchers as a filter. he will be looking into that for next year. he's working on other factors such as games getting postponed/cancelled. not sure how long this system is gunna stay hot, but i'm takin your advice and just playing this as my baseball plays.

    only series that qualifies today is Tex @ LAA rl +155. i actually love the rangers today, but his surprising success keeps me from fading his plays. (mets series that hit on the 2nd game v cards earlier this week was a big surprise)